成果归属作者：

成秋明

成果归属机构：

地球科学与资源学院

作者：

Zhao, Rongtian ; Wang, Daoping ; Ge, Yong ; Zhang, Mo ; Zhang, Die ; Coffman, D'Maris ; Cheng, Qiuming

单位：

Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China;Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China;Kings Coll London, Dept Geog, London, England;Univ Cambridge, Dept Comp Sci & Technol, Cambridge, England;Jiangxi Normal Univ, Key Lab Poyang Lake Wetland & Watershed Res, Minist Educ, Nanchang, Peoples R China;Jiangxi Normal Univ, Sch Geog & Environm, Nanchang, Peoples R China;UCL, Bartlett Sch Sustainable Construct, London, England;China Univ Geosci, Beijing, Peoples R China;Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Earth Sci & Engn, Zhuhai, Peoples R China

关键词：

RESILIENCE; MAXIMIZATION; NETWORKS

摘要：

Regional conflicts have become prominent in triggering shocks on supply chains and cascade effects on resource management. Reliable assessments of the cascading pattern of production resources among sectors globally are missing. Here, we modeled global multisectoral production losses and the cascading pattern of a grain supply shock in the Russia-Ukraine regional conflict by utilizing a geographic input-output approach. We find that the most cascading losses emerged in the textile (17.04 % +/- 0.72 %, 95 % confidence intervals) and food-processing sectors (16.85 % +/- 0.5 %). The shock propagated in a "grain-processed food/livestock" direct chain and a "light manufacturing-heavy manufacturing/textile" indirect chain. Prolonged conflict and disrupted resource allocation decreased the efficiency of production recovery in low-income countries and amplified inequality of production resources. Our approach presents a quantitative framework for unexpected supply chain shocks. The findings support the case for production aid to low-income countries and circular supply chains for sustainable development.

基金：

National Natural Science Foundation of China [42230110]; Innovation Project of State Key Labora- tory of Resources and Environmental Information System of China [KPI004]

语种：

英文

DOI：

10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.107740

来源：

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING,2024():.

出版日期：

2024-10

提交日期：

2024-07-17

引用参考：

Zhao, Rongtian; Wang, Daoping; Ge, Yong; Zhang, Mo; Zhang, Die; Coffman, D'Maris; Cheng, Qiuming. Cascade effects of global supply chains induced by regional conflicts increase global inequality[J]. RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING,2024():.